Margit Bussmann, Chair of International Relations and Regional Studies at the University of Greifswald, presents her research on whether military exercises among allies strengthen the alliance's credibility. This event is part of the International Security Research Colloquium hosted by the Centre for International Security.
Military alliances, in particular defensive pacts, are an expression of intent to come to each other’s help in case an alliance member is attacked. Formal agreements of military assistance, however, are frequently reneged and there is a high degree of uncertainty about alliance reliability. Assessments of an alliance partner’s intention are particularly crucial in the context of extended deterrence. Costly signals can help with the interpretation of the intention and enhance credibility of alliance commitments. Various such costly signals can be conveyed, one being military maneuvers. Military exercises carry high costs ex ante and ex post and can be a mechanism to convey a credible signal of resolve to an adversary; and in case of extended deterrence a signal to allies that the protection will hold. This adds credibility to alliances. With the help of quantitative analysis using data on multilateral military exercises from 1977-2016 we will assess whether more exercises among alliances partners contribute to less alliance violations. Our results provide some first support for this expectation, also if we exclude dyads consisting of NATO members.
Speaker
Margit Bussmann holds the Chair of International Relations and Regional Studies at the University of Greifswald since 2010. She received her M.A. (1997) and Ph.D. (2001) at the University of Alabama and her Habilitation (2009) at the University of Konstanz. Her research interests include the causes and consequences of international and domestic conflicts, violence against civilians, and post-conflict stability. Currently her research focuses on the security architecture in the Baltic Sea region and Germany’s perception in the region. She is heading the research cluster on security and international relations at the Interdisciplinary Center for Baltic Sea Region Research at the University of Greifswald. Her work has been published in International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, and World Development among others.
