Navin Bapat, Professor of Peace and War at the University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill, presents his research on jihadist competition for local militant partners. This event is part of the International Security Research Colloquium hosted by the Centre for International Security.
Although most militant groups are local and seek to alter politics within their states, other jihadist groups, such as the Islamic State and al Qaeda, aim to destabilise the Westphalian state system. The jihadists’ strategy to create this instability involves supporting and co-opting various local militants in host states throughout the system. This pattern raises two questions: when do jihadists strategically partner with local militants, and what steps can governments take to contain jihadists before they escalate violence?
Using a game theoretic model, Navin Bapat's presentation will demonstrate that jihadists face a commitment problem involving their rivals when seeking local militants to partner with. If jihadists are competing, the potential success of one group threatens rival jihadist organisations. Competition, therefore, encourages multiple jihadist groups to intervene, which worsens violence and undermines the success of local militant groups. Empirically, these competitive interventions often occur in weaker states and occasionally in moderately powerful ones. Although great powers may intuitively turn to military solutions against jihadists, the model identifies that encouraging negotiation with local militants is the optimal strategy to combat foreign jihadists. While unlikely due to negative attitudes to negotiating with militants, co-opting local militants stops them from allying with jihadists, making interventions or counter-interventions impossible. Professor Bapat will provide preliminary support for the model’s conclusions using several case studies.
Speaker
Navin Bapat is the Dowd Professor of Peace and War and the Chair of the Curriculum of Peace, War, and Defense at the University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill. He received a B.A. in Political Science from the University of Michigan in 1998 and pursued graduate studies at Rice University, where he received an M.A. (2000) and a PhD (2004) in political science. Professor Bapat research interests include examining conflicts involving violent non-state actors, such as insurgencies and terrorist campaigns, using formal and empirical methods. Professor Bapat also is involved an ongoing project examining the use and the effectiveness of economic sanctions. His published work has appeared in the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, International Organization, International Studies Quarterly, the British Journal of Political Science, Public Choice, and Conflict Management and Peace Science. Professor Bapat also published a book, Monsters to Destroy: Understanding the War on Terror with Oxford University Press, and is currently working on projects related to terrorism and energy security, the enforcement of economic sanctions, and racial terrorism.
