Join a presentation by Yvonne Giesing (ifo Institute).
This event is part of the Frontiers in quantitative migration research seminar series.
The event will be held on Zoom. Please click here to join.
Emigrants are less likely to participate in elections in their home country. They are also self-selected in terms of education, gender, age, and political preferences, changing the structure of the origin population. High emigration rates can therefore have a systematic influence on election results. Using administrative migration and voting data, we show that large emigration from Poland following the accession to the European Union in 2004 caused an increase in vote shares for right-wing parties, while decreasing the vote share for left-wing parties. To account for endogenous migration patterns, we construct an innovative instrument that measures the distance to the closest EU border and adds time variation by exploiting the gradual opening of different EU labour markets. Our results further highlight that emigration increases voting for parties with pro-European positions, but has no effects on incumbent parties. The results have important implications for the design of voting policies.
Frontiers in quantitative migration research is a seminar series jointly organised by Herbert Brücker, Christian Hunkler and Sulin Sardoschau, Berlin Institute for Integration and Migration Research (BIM) at the Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, and Michaela Kreyenfeld, Hertie School in Berlin. The intention is to gather an international scientific audience of colleagues from economics, sociology, demographics and related disciplines who are interested in innovative research on migration and integration. The weekly virtual seminar (held on Zoom) will be held in English and dedicates 30 minutes presentation time for the speaker, and 30 minutes for discussion and questions from the audience.
Find more information on the seminar series here. To receive program updates and reminders for upcoming presentations, please send an e-mail with the subject “Frontiers Registration” to wolf.farkas[at]hu-berlin[dot]de.
