“Trump has lost with independent voters,” says Tom Perez in discussion at the Hertie School

In the 2022 US midterm elections, an overwhelming “red wave” failed to materialise as many Trump-backed Republicans lost their races. Is the world’s oldest democracy back on track after the Capitol Hill insurrection of January 2021?

On 7 December, the Hertie School hosted a discussion with Tom Perez, former United States Secretary of Labor and Chairman of the Democratic National Convention, about the perspectives of US democracy. Hertie School Professor of Applied Methods and Comparative Politics Mark Kayser joined him, and Judith Althaus, Advisor for International Politics to the Head of the Federal German Chancellery, moderated the discussion.

President Cornelia Woll kicked off the event with praise for Tom Perez. While concerned about what is happening in the United States, she was “hopeful that we have people like Secretary Perez who dedicate their time, resources and talents to public service and making sure our public institutions are filled with values and ideals.” Stressing the promotion of democracy as one of the Hertie School’s founding values, she continued, “I’m sure students will see him as an inspiration.” 

Praise for Biden’s leadership internationally and at home

Perez lauded President Joe Biden for his leadership of a transatlantic coalition in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and viewed the president and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s joint support for Ukraine positively. The former Secretary of Labor also noted Biden and the Democrats’ successes at home, one of which was the reimbursement of cut pension funds under the American Rescue Plan – something the media ignored, he said. He also pointed out that thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, the US national health insurance programme Medicare can now negotiate prices for prescription drugs. Additionally, the act would help to slash US greenhouse gas emissions, he said. Despite German concerns that the act would lead to deindustrialisation in Germany, Perez was confident that European countries could profit from its exemptions.

Optimism about the future after previous elections

Considering incumbent presidents usually see their party lose the majority in congressional elections, observers might have expected Republicans to win big in this year’s midterms. Why didn’t they? According to Perez, far-right Republicans are too extreme for independent voters, for example, in supporting the US Supreme Court’s recent decision to strike down the federal right to abortion. Pointing to several successful referenda to enshrine abortion rights at the state level, Perez said that the conservative Supreme Court’s decision was out of tune with voters and “would not age well”. But he also credited the president himself for Democrats’ success: “Joe Biden’s values are spot on. That’s why we did so well in 2022.”

Perez was optimistic about the Democrats’ prospects of winning future presidential elections. Here, he drew on the examples of Arizona and Georgia: while both historically red states had two Republican senators six years ago, they both elected two Democratic senators in recent elections (though Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona announced on 9 December she was leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent). Both states also went to Joe Biden in the 2020 election. In red states Texas and Florida, Perez noted that Republican candidates won by decreasing margins in the last three presidential elections. With more attention from the Democrats, he expects the Democratic presidential candidate – potentially a woman of colour – to win these two states in the 2028 elections.

Watch a live recording of our event.